where xˉ is the combined mean. [JEE Tip] Never drop the d2 correction: the scatter of the two group means about the overall mean adds genuine spread, so the pooled variance is usually larger than the weighted average of σ12 and σ22.
Total probability theorem. If the events E1,E2,…,Ek form a partition of the sample space (mutually exclusive, exhaustive, each of positive probability), then for any event A
P(A)=i=1∑kP(Ei)P(A∣Ei).
This weighted sum is exactly the denominator that underlies Bayes' theorem.
Mean deviation is least about the median. For any data set the sum ∑∣x−a∣ is minimised when a equals the median; hence the mean deviation about the median is never larger than the mean deviation about the mean. Mean deviation about the mean, by definition, takes a=xˉ.
Binomial extras. For X∼B(n,p) with q=1−p: the most likely value (mode) is ⌊(n+1)p⌋ when (n+1)p is not an integer, and the "at least one" probability is P(X≥1)=1−P(X=0)=1−qn.
Solved Examples — Beyond-NCERT Formulae
Example 1 — Combined mean. Group A has the 3 scores 9,12,15 and Group B has the 2 scores 13,21. Find the mean of all 5 scores.
Group means: xˉA=39+12+15=12 and xˉB=213+21=17.
Example 2 — Combined variance. For the same data, Group A (9,12,15) has variance σA2=6 and Group B (13,21) has variance σB2=16. Find the variance of all 5 scores.
Deviations of the group means from xˉ=14: dA=12−14=−2 and dB=17−14=3.
Pooling check about 14: the squared deviations 25,4,1,1,49 sum to 80, so σ2=580=16.
[JEE Tip] Dropping the d2 terms gives the wrong value 53(6)+2(16)=10; the d2 correction restores the missing between-group spread.
Answer:σ2=16.
Example 3 — Total probability (two bags). Bag I holds 5 red and 3 green balls; Bag II holds 2 red and 2 green balls. A bag is chosen at random and one ball is drawn. Find P(red).
Priors P(I)=P(II)=21; conditionals P(R∣I)=85 and P(R∣II)=42=21.
Total probability: P(R)=P(I)P(R∣I)+P(II)P(R∣II)=21⋅85+21⋅21=165+164=169.
Answer:P(red)=169.
Example 4 — Total probability (three suppliers). Suppliers S1,S2,S3 provide 25%,25%,50% of a shop's items, with defective rates 4%,8%,2% respectively. What fraction of all items are defective?
The suppliers partition the items: P(S1)=0.25, P(S2)=0.25, P(S3)=0.50, and P(D∣S1)=0.04, P(D∣S2)=0.08, P(D∣S3)=0.02.
Answer:P(D)=0.04, i.e. 4% of the items are defective.
Example 5 — Mean deviation: median beats mean. For the data 2,4,6,8,20, compare the mean deviation about the median with that about the mean.
Here n=5: the median is the middle value 6, and the mean is xˉ=52+4+6+8+20=540=8.
MD about the median: 5∣2−6∣+∣4−6∣+∣6−6∣+∣8−6∣+∣20−6∣=54+2+0+2+14=522=4.4.
MD about the mean: 5∣2−8∣+∣4−8∣+∣6−8∣+∣8−8∣+∣20−8∣=56+4+2+0+12=524=4.8.
The value about the median, 4.4, is smaller than the value about the mean, 4.8, exactly as the theory guarantees.
Answer: MD is 4.4 about the median versus 4.8 about the mean, so the median gives the smaller mean deviation.
Example 6 — Binomial mode. For X∼B(10,31), find the most likely number of successes.
Formula: mode =⌊(n+1)p⌋=⌊11⋅31⌋=⌊311⌋=⌊3.67⌋=3.
Why it works: the consecutive-term ratio is P(X=k−1)P(X=k)=kn−k+1⋅qp=k11−k⋅21, which is >1 for k≤3 and <1 from k=4 onward, so the probabilities rise up to k=3 and then fall.
Answer: the most likely value is X=3.
Example 7 — At least one. A machine turns out items that are defective independently with probability p=41. If 3 items are produced, find the probability that at least one is defective.
Use the complement with q=1−41=43 and n=3: P(X≥1)=1−P(X=0)=1−qn.
Compute: P(X≥1)=1−(43)3=1−6427=6437≈0.578.
Answer:P(X≥1)=6437.
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